Lower 48 Activity Update
Weekly AFE Leaks Summary
Activity Update
This insight is planned as a weekly roundup of activity from the Baker Hughes Rig Report, current prices/futures, and news.
AFE Leaks focuses on providing detailed AFE/actual development costs across the Lower 48, with capex data across 80,000+ wells.
News Cycle
- M&A
- As reported by Reuters Vitol is looking to take advantage of what is looking like more and more scarcity premium in the Permian by floating a $3 billion USD whisper number for VTX and their *ahem “core” Delaware acreage, which everyone knows is southern Reeves/Pecos….. Regardless, the company reports 46,000 boepd from 46,000 net acres. Jefferies is marketing the deal, which also includes a water treatment business, with surface acreage dedicated to LandBridge.
Tip
For my paid subscribers, I will be working through an asset insight, covering acreage, capex, and volumes either today or Saturday (3/29/2025).
- Currently being marketed by Moelis, ConocoPhillips is trying to offload the Anadarko assets that were acquired from Marathon and were essentially a footnote on the acquisition announcement (I’m sure to the chagrin of many members of that asset team). The not so hidden teaser reports net acreage of 300,000+, with current production of 39 mboe/d at a 50%/77% liquids split (production/revenue). Given the nature of these assets, those liquids are likely heavily NGL’s. But don’t worry, I’m sure it will get tons of value given its’ Unrivaled ratio of development to PDP value, whatever that is supposed to mean.
- Perhaps to remind us all that they still exist, Amplify released an updated presentation to get whatever equity investors exist super-excited about the Juniper asset acquisition in the Rockies. Shareholder approval scheduled for April 14. Powder River is now the next big thing 15 years running.
Prices
WTI rebounds towards $70 on the week, while Henry Hub has moved lower
Rigs
Permian dominates the rig count with roughly 50% of current land rigs in the US, though should be noted that Midland rigs dropped by 4 this week.
Rig count largely flat in the last year, though total Permian percentage has started to reverse
| Basin | Rig Count | Cumulative % | Week | Year | 5-Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delaware | 165 | 29.2% | ▲︎ 1 | ▼︎ 189 | ▼︎ 46 |
| Midland | 110 | 48.7% | ▼︎ 4 | ▼︎ 133 | ▼︎ 38 |
| Eagle Ford | 48 | 57.2% | – | ▼︎ 56 | ▼︎ 15 |
| Williston | 32 | 62.8% | – | ▼︎ 35 | ▼︎ 17 |
| Haynesville | 29 | 68.0% | ▲︎ 1 | ▼︎ 41 | ▼︎ 10 |
| Directional | 25 | 72.4% | ▲︎ 1 | ▼︎ 18 | ▼︎ 2 |
| SCOOP | 21 | 76.1% | – | ▼︎ 5 | ▲︎ 5 |
| Marcellus | 18 | 79.3% | – | ▼︎ 40 | ▼︎ 17 |
| Powder River | 15 | 81.9% | – | ▼︎ 1 | ▼︎ 1 |
| Vertical | 12 | 84.1% | ▲︎ 1 | ▼︎ 9 | ▼︎ 13 |
| STACK | 11 | 86.0% | – | ▼︎ 14 | – |
| Granite Wash | 10 | 87.8% | ▲︎ 1 | ▲︎ 4 | ▲︎ 8 |
| Permian - Other | 10 | 89.6% | ▼︎ 2 | ▼︎ 2 | ▲︎ 4 |
| Utica | 10 | 91.3% | ▲︎ 1 | ▼︎ 14 | ▲︎ 1 |
| Uinta | 9 | 92.9% | – | ▼︎ 13 | ▲︎ 4 |
| Oklahoma Other | 8 | 94.3% | ▼︎ 1 | ▼︎ 6 | ▲︎ 2 |
| Texas Other | 7 | 95.6% | – | ▼︎ 8 | ▼︎ 1 |
| DJ-Niobrara | 6 | 96.6% | – | ▼︎ 17 | ▼︎ 13 |
| Waynesville | 4 | 97.3% | – | – | ▲︎ 4 |
| California Other | 3 | 97.9% | – | ▼︎ 1 | ▲︎ 2 |
| San Juan | 3 | 98.4% | – | ▼︎ 3 | ▲︎ 3 |
| East Texas Eagle Ford | 2 | 98.8% | – | ▼︎ 2 | ▲︎ 1 |
| Anadarko | 1 | 98.9% | – | ▼︎ 5 | – |
| Ardmore | 1 | 99.1% | – | ▲︎ 1 | ▲︎ 1 |
| Arkoma | 1 | 99.3% | – | ▼︎ 1 | – |
| Barnett | 1 | 99.5% | – | ▲︎ 1 | – |
| Green River | 1 | 99.6% | – | ▲︎ 1 | ▲︎ 1 |
| Michigan Other | 1 | 99.8% | – | ▲︎ 1 | ▲︎ 1 |
| Utah Other | 1 | 100.0% | – | ▼︎ 1 | ▲︎ 1 |
| Colorado Other | 0 | 100.0% | – | ▼︎ 2 | – |
| Mississippian | 0 | 100.0% | – | ▼︎ 3 | ▼︎ 1 |
AFE of the week
Today’s well is Matador’s Airstrip State 130H, which is not actually available via the New Mexico OCD quite yet, but is one of those vaunted U-turn wells. Why are we drilling them? To show we can? Because it’s risk-free? Or are we simply just trying to make sure not to strand any acreage where we don’t have stand-up/lay-down adjoining sections (my guess). Anyway, there are existing wells on the lease, including 4 producing 3rd BS wells already, so maybe temper our expectations on this one’s productivity if it ever gets drilled! Still, it gives insight to capex expectations on these longer laterals.
Airstrip 130H (Horseshoe Well) in Section 30-18S-35E comes in at ~$11.7 Million for a 9,625 ft lateral completed in 37 frac stages. This compares to ~$10.9 Million for a regular 2-mile lateral (the other non-horseshoe permitted wells).
Tip
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